June 1, 2006 by CommonDreams.org

Looks Like Long War, Friends

by Tom Hayden


'Hopes for Iraq Pullback Fading'
-- headline, LA Times, May 31, 06

President Bush apparently has decided to escalate the Iraq War with a US offensive in Ramadi, and 'stay the course' through the 2008 election cycle, thus ending months of speculation about US troop withdrawals this year.

Gen. George Casey could still recommend the withdrawal of 30,000 troops later this year, but that could further weaken the US on the battlefield. A new American offensive is expected in Ramadi, in Al Anbar province where insurgents dominate, despite earlier American offensives there. In addition, a military showdown with the forces of Moktada al-Sadr is 'probably inevitable', despite al-Sadr’s bloc holding thirty seats in the new Iraqi parliament. (NYT, May 24, 06) These offensive operations were delayed due to the Iraqi elections, just as the invasion of Falluja was delayed until after the American presidential election of 2004.

Any US troop withdrawals now might ignite peace sentiment in Iraq, forcing the new Iraqi government to seriously consider talks with insurgent groups. The vast majority of Iraqis, and a slight majority of the new parliament, favor setting a deadline for US withdrawal.

Fed by the US military, speculation has persisted that the Bush Administration would begin at least token troop withdrawals in this US election year, as soon as the new Iraqi government is in place. But that speculation has been based on containing the insurgency, which clearly has failed. Ninety-two American soldiers have been killed in Al Anbar this year alone, and the total attacks attributed to Iraqi insurgents is higher than this time one year ago. (LAT, May 31, 06)

This is an out of control bloodbath, despite recent information showing that the Iraqi army and police forces now total 452,000 (NYT, May 24, 06). Whether these Iraqi troops can fight the 'enemy' remains to be seen, but they certainly have become a destructive thresher of Iraqi life, where 80 Iraqis are killed or wounded every day. As many as one million Iraqis have fled the country for Jordan.

The seemingly endless war will pose increasing dilemmas for politicians this year and during the fast-developing presidential campaign of 2008. How long will American voters put up with the casualties, the costs and the shattered American reputation? As the Italians withdraw their troops and South Koreans pull out one-third of theirs, the pressures on the British government could cause implosion. As things stand, the 'coalition of the willing' has all but disappeared, leaving 135,000 Americans and 6,000 Brits sunk in the quicksand of empire at temperatures of 120 degrees.

Those in either party who hope the war will somehow go away before 2008, like Sen. Hillary Clinton, now must worry about the political roadside bombs that Bush is planting along their campaign trails.

The moral question, which matters at least in civil society, is whether there is any point at which the destruction will become intolerable for those Americans who worry that the violence will only worsen if the US withdraws. As evidence of the destructiveness of the occupation continues to grow, as bad news accumulates, as a few Americans die everyday for what most Americans consider a mistake, the breaking point in American patience may come sooner than expected by the Bush Administration and fence-sitting Democrats. Already, whenever one tells an audience to be prepared for a 'long war', the gasps and groans are palpable. Those are the birth pains of a growing populism, not seen in many years, at home.

(Tom Hayden, who has been active in social movements since 1960, teaches at Occidental College. He is the author, most recently, of 'Street Wars and the Future of Violence.')

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