News stories surrounding the US invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq proclaimed the arrival of a long-promised "Revolution in Military Affairs" (RMA), a new system of warfare that was said to combine innovative battlefield tactics with high-tech weaponry, networked communications, and sophisticated surveillance technology. The US military promoted its latest toys as "force multipliers" -- factors that promised dramatically to increase US combat effectiveness without requiring additional troops. Advanced weapons systems publicly acknowledged by the Department of Defense included unmanned spy drones, powerful "bunker buster" explosives, and precision-guided munitions; additionally, the US arsenal was rumored to contain fearsome new weapons from the realm of science fiction: battlefield death rays, "E-bombs," even devices that would allow GIs to see through walls.

"Wired" or "postmodern" warfare, it was widely claimed, would transform the 21st-century battlefield and assure American supremacy for generations to come. As one television commentator gushed: "It is hard to imagine a technological change that has had a similar impact on international affairs. The development of the tank? The first flight of a military aircraft? The invention of gunpowder? It is somewhere at that level."2

This degree of enthusiasm for RMA did not long survive the first flush of triumph. After several years of grueling guerrilla warfare in the Middle East, US strategists are now re-learning the fundamental lessons of Vietnam: that guerilla war is a political, not merely a military, struggle; that technology, no matter how sophisticated or lethal, cannot defeat a determined popular resistance; that resistance fighters draw their power from the sympathies and co-operation of the people.

The following, a re-evaluation of RMA's most highly-touted weapons in light of the realities of combat, reaffirms that it is people, not armaments, that remain decisive.

-- Precision Munitions

"Afghanistan will be remembered as the smart-bomb war," predicted the New York Times in a front-page article that touted the "swiftness and accuracy of … a new kind of American airpower."4 In fact US "smart bombs" has already been used during the 1991 Gulf War and the 1999 attack on Yugoslavia, and their performance was in some ways unsatisfactory. Not only were laser-guided weapons far less accurate than contemporary propaganda suggested; they proved unusable in bad weather (cloud cover or sandstorms prevent laser guidance systems from "painting" the target).5

The new JDAM (Joint Direct Attack Munition), a compact satellite navigation system that converts a free-falling 2,000-lb. bomb into a guided smart weapon, was designed to solve the weather problem. Reports from Afghanistan and Iraq suggest that the JDAM's GPS guidance technology worked well in sandstorms and through cloud cover, resisted jamming, and was in general "remarkably good and remarkably consistent," though its accuracy probably falls short of Defense Department claims.6 Relatively quite cheap at a cost of about $20,000 per bomb, the JDAM will likely remain a lethal threat to fixed, observable targets for years to come.

Far more expensive, at $500,000 apiece, is the US Navy's Tomahawk cruise missile, a ship-launched, radar-guided flying bomb that debuted in the 1991 Gulf War and was also used in Iraq and Afghanistan. Because of its high cost and inaccuracy relative to the JDAM, it is somewhat out of fashion as a conventional battlefield weapon, though nuclear cruise missiles remain an important part of the US arsenal. The Tomahawk is essentially unchanged since its introduction in the late 1970s, but a new high-tech "tactical Tomahawk" is in development. Promised improvements include networked on-board computers capable of processing targeting data from multiple sources, as well as a TV camera for battlefield observation. Originally scheduled for delivery in 2004, the Tactical Tomahawk has been delayed repeatedly and may not appear in combat anytime soon.

At least one of the Pentagon's "spy drones" is now used extensively for the delivery of precision munitions and can therefore be discussed in this section. The Predator, an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) designed for surveillance and reconnaissance, began carrying laser-guided Hellfire missiles during the US invasion of Afghanistan and continues to fly combat missions in Iraq and elsewhere in Asia. The object of especially breathless praise from Western journalists, the Predator is in practice slow, relatively inaccurate, and virtually unusable in rainy weather.89 A Defense Department study dating from late 2001 found "serious deficiencies in reliability, maintainability and human factors design" and reported that, by late 2001, 22 of the 50 Predator aircraft built for the U.S. Air Force (at a cost of $25 million each) had been shot down or crashed. The Predator is nevertheless valued in its reconnaissance role and is credited with detecting enemy mortar positions and warning convoys of potential ambushes.

Overall, the US estimates the accuracy of precision munitions used in Iraq and Afghanistan at about 90 percent. However, the 2006 Lancet study of civilian mortality in Iraq attributes 13% of civilian deaths to airstrikes -- i.e., out of 601,027 estimated deaths from violent causes, nearly 80,000 Iraqis had been killed by US bombs as of June, 2006. Yet military analysts seem satisfied with the performance of high-tech bombs and missiles, despite their evident failure to reduce civilian casualties. This is because the purpose of precision-guided munitions is not to avoid "collateral damage," despite contrary claims by US propagandists. The real importance of the weapons is that they protect planes and pilots from anti-aircraft fire; long-distance precision airstrikes mean fewer sorties and less exposure to enemy guns. Measured strictly in terms of lost aircraft per sortie, performance appears to have been superb.14 Thus the fact that precision munitions have, if anything, increased civilian casualties is not of great concern to military planners, except insofar as the US is occasionally embarrassed by newspaper accounts of "unnecessary" killings.

Of far greater concern to imperialist countries is the demonstrated impotence of precision weapons in the face of determined guerilla resistance. During the invasion of Lebanon, Hezbollah fighters were able to counter Israel's US-supplied smart bombs using classic guerilla tactics, digging in (a network of reinforced underground bunkers consistently thwarted precision weapons) or blending into the population as circumstances required. Nor were Israel's high-tech targeting systems effective in locating small, easily portable weapons like Hezbollah's Katyusha rockets.15 Despite its overwhelming success in applying pre-emptive firepower in the context of full-scale invasions, the US and its allies have discovered the futility of "firing precision munitions from attack aircraft against . . . 'phantoms' or 'ghosts' -- shadowy groups blended into existing society without respect to international borders."

As a result, the air war in Iraq has undergone a distinct shift over time from precision tactical bombing to strategic bombing intended to punish the people for their support of the resistance.17 A similar trajectory was followed, much more rapidly, in Lebanon, where the Israeli Air Force responded to the failure of its initial precision strikes against Hezbollah by widening the air war to civilian targets, including apartment buildings, airports, bridges, highways, and human beings.18 In both cases the aggressors disastrously underestimated the courage of the people, whose support for the resistance and willingness to sacrifice grew stronger than before. As a Beirut mother told an American reporter in July 2006:

"If Israel and America want to do this to us, all we can do is to bear the situation, so if we have to stay underground we will. We don’t mind staying here as long as the boys are O.K. [a reference to Hezbollah’s fighters] and as long as Sheikh Nasrallah is fine. We can bear anything"

The strength and breadth of popular support for Hezbollah remains an embarrassment to US and Israeli propagandists, who have sought to portray the party and its militia as mere cat's-paws for Syrian interference in Lebanese affairs. Polls taken in the aftermath of Israel's invasion, showing that 87% of Lebanese supported the resistance,20 were dismissed or ignored by Western media, but Hezbollah's surprise victory is in itself sufficient proof of popular support. The tactics that defeated Israel's high-tech munitions -- construction of elaborate underground command centers and hardened missile sites throughout the country, lightning transfers of armaments and fighters in the face of Israeli bombardment, even the fighters' ability to melt at will into the civilian population -- required the sympathy and coordinated assistance of the people, often over years of painstaking preparation.

-- Bunker Busters

Official sources have been putting out mixed messages about the bunker buster, a bomb designed to penetrate and destroy hardened underground command centers. Although military spokesmen have uniformly praised the performance of bunker busters in the current wars, the Defense Department has never ceased to demand bigger and more potent versions of the weapon, from which it might be surmised that existing models are not as effective as claimed.

The latest generation of conventional bunker busters, thermobaric weapons purportedly able to penetrate reinforced concrete to a depth of 3.4 meters, were extensively used in both Iraq and Afghanistan. (Thermobaric bombs, also known as fuel-air explosives, use atmospheric oxygen to ignite a metallic fuel such as aluminum, creating a more powerful and sustained shock. It is not yet clear how effective these weapons were, since hard data remains classified. However, in 2005 a controversy over US plans to fast-track development of a "Robust Nuclear Earth Penetrator" required officials to admit that "[p]otential adversaries increasingly are building hardened retreats deep beneath the earth, immune to conventional weapons." More recently, a rough evaluation of the bunker buster's performance could be derived from the IDF's 2006 attack on Lebanon. In July, the US rushed 100 bunker busters to Israel as part of an effort to kill Hassan Nasrallah and the rest of Hezbollah's leadership. The assassination targets, concealed to a depth of 40 meters in a network of hardened bunkers, emerged unscathed.

-- Intelligence and Reconnaissance

The US military's dominance of the traditional battlefield owes much to its sophisticated systems for electronic warfare, especially its capacity for virtually instantaneous collection and coordination of electronic intelligence. In theory, US C4I (Command, Control, Communications, Computers, and Intelligence) is fully integrated from top to bottom -- i.e., the US is already engaged in "network-centric" warfare.24 In space, GPS satellites determine the location, speed, and direction of targets and relay the information to cruise missiles and other precision munitions. High in the sky, the converted Boeing 707 known as JSTARS collects and combines radar, infrared, and video information to create real-time electronic maps for the use of battlefield commanders. Closer to the ground, a dozen varieties of reconnaissance drones, ranging from the airliner-sized Global Hawk to the tiny, hand-launched Raven, use electronic imaging to identify and track targets. Electronic information is instantaneously distributed to command posts, laptops, and Strykers (high-speed armored ground vehicles equipped with 50-cal. heavy machine guns and the latest in battlefield technology) -- and may soon be made available to individual soldiers through the "Land Warrior" concept discussed below.

In practice, network-centric warfare is far from seamless. During the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, electronic surveillance succeeded in locating objects of potential military interest, but could not generally distinguish among enemies, friendlies, and civilians.25 The result was considerable "collateral damage" and several well-publicized friendly-fire incidents, including the death of American football star Pat Tillman.26 High-tech equipment was unevenly distributed on the battlefield, prone to breakage due to its delicacy, and highly dependent on the logistical supply line.27 Field commanders were often overwhelmed with the sheer amount of information available, while generals discovered that vast knowledge of enemy dispositions does not guarantee correct strategic and tactical decisions.28 Still, despite its flaws, high-tech C4I has worked well enough in support of the motorized maneuvers, massive airstrikes, and setpiece battles in which the US military continues to excel.

In the context of guerilla warfare, however, the latest surveillance gadgets have little availed US forces. Iraq's resistance fighters have learned to maneuver in small, lightly equipped groups that are virtually undetectable by US drones, or at worst indistinguishable from civilian traffic. Small-scale, highly efficient "hit and run" attacks (e.g., IEDs and sniper fire) are calculated to thwart US drones; cellular organization and face-to-face communications are relied upon to outflank signals intelligence.29 Indeed, because the high-tech, high-flying apparatus of US electronic signals intelligence is oriented toward monitoring and destroying the highest levels of a unitary command structure (hence the Defense Department's public obsession with "decapitation strikes"), it is also especially inadequate for the penetration of small, disciplined guerilla cells.30 As a result the US has yet to achieve a useful intelligence picture of the Iraqi resistance and appears to be doing little better in Afghanistan.

Thus military analyst Anthony Cordesman, in a bleak and exhaustive assessment of US counterinsurgency efforts in Iraq, finds that network-centric warfare has been trumped by what he calls "human-centric warfare":

[S]ensors, UAVs, and IS&R [information seeking and retrieval] can have great value in Iraq, just as they did in Vietnam and South Lebanon, but they are anything but "magic bullets." The unattended ground sensor program in Vietnam was once touted as such a magic bullet but took less than a year to defeat.

Even more disturbing to US theoreticians, Hezbollah's successful defense of southern Lebanon in 2006 provided evidence that a well-organized guerilla force can beat the high-tech West at its own game. Hezbollah flummoxed Israel's satellite and overflight intelligence with decoys, developed counter-signals technology that cracked encrypted radio communications, and intercepted key battlefield information simply by listening in on IDF soldiers' cell phone calls to their families.33 Jamming technology, possibly supplied by Iran, blocked anti-missile missiles aboard Israeli vessels, allowing Hezbollah to disable at least one Israeli warship.34 Although Israeli electronic intelligence is "close to, or superior to, that available to US forces," Cordesman finds that "modern technology does not provide the kind of sensors, protection, and weapons that can prevent a skilled urban force from forcing Israel or the US to fight it largely on its own terms."35

-- Infantry Equipment

The theoretical "Land Warrior" -- an infantryman equipped with 17 lbs. of high-tech gear including mini-computer, GPS receiver, battlefield wi-fi, and heads-up visual display -- has yet to appear in combat, though some elements of this wearable ensemble were finally appearing on a limited basis in Iraq as of May 2006.36 Apart from this untested system, technology has made surprisingly little difference to the US front-line soldier. Thirty years after Vietnam, US infantrymen continue to rely on the M-16 automatic rifle, which they still regard as inferior to the AK-47 generally used by guerilla fighters. (Soldiers in Iraq report that the M-16's notorious jamming problems are exacerbated by sand.37) GIs are much fonder of the M240 medium-weight machine gun, a versatile and highly mobile weapon which has largely replaced the Vietnam-era M60, and the reliable M2 .50-cal. heavy machine gun, dating from WWII and described by one Marine as "the ultimate fight stopper" and "the most coveted weapon in-theater."38 Shoulder-mounted rocket launchers like the SMAW (Shoulder-Launched Multipurpose Assault Weapon) employ technology that is decades old and no better than that used by resistance fighters.

The most important innovations in infantry kit are not weapons as such. Recent advances in night vision and infrared sensing now give US troops a distinct advantage after dark; in particular, standard-issue night goggles now employ futuristic image-enhancing technology that boosts very small quantities of light into the visible range. In the same Marine's words: "Our guys see in the dark and own the night. Very little enemy action after evening prayers. More and more enemy being whacked [i.e., killed] at night during movement by hunter-killer teams."40 At present, resistance fighters have no way to counter night vision apart from courage and prudence; presumably US superiority will erode over time as advanced night-vision technology enters the arms black market.

Also highly rated by US troops is state-of-the-art "Interceptor" body armor. Relatively light (though "hotter than hell") at six lbs., the ceramic-plated equipment has lived up to manufacturers' claims, consistently stopping AK-47 rounds and light shrapnel.41 Together with improved battlefield medicine, the new body armor has undoubtedly saved many American lives and thereby enhanced morale. However, since the armor protects only the torso, it cannot greatly reduce the number of disabling injuries due to attacks from snipers and IEDs (Improvised Explosive Devices).42 Therefore it presents no insurmountable obstacle to traditional hit-and-run guerilla tactics.

-- Chimeras

After five years of war in the Middle East, the most fantastic new devices purportedly in the US arsenal, reminiscent of Hollywood science fiction, have yet to appear on the battlefield. Some of these weapons may still be in development; some exist but have not been used for political or tactical reasons; some may never have existed except as journalistic fancies or black propaganda. A quick review of these mostly chimerical weapons is instructive.

Despite prewar fears, the US is unable to "see through walls," except in a very limited sense. The military's inability to identify hidden human targets was made plain during the April 2004 siege of Fallujah, where the US eschewed house-to-house fighting; instead, Marines called in air strikes or fired shoulder-mounted rockets to flatten every building that could conceivably be used to shelter resistance fighters. Reportedly, a handheld radar system intended for use in house searches is only now ready for deployment in Iraq. It will allow GIs to detect the presence of human beings through a concrete wall, but its range is limited to 50 feet. Moreover, the device must be held -- by hand -- adjacent to the wall that is to be seen through, suggesting that its use against well-defended guerilla positions would be suicidal.

The E-bomb, an explosive weapon designed to overwhelm electrical circuitry by generating an intense electromagnetic field, is undoubtedly real.44 However, there is as yet no evidence that the US has used E-bombs in combat. (Not E-bombs but precision munitions were used to disrupt and destroy Iraqi communications during the 2003 air assault.) Because the weapon's effective range cannot be reliably controlled, the E-bomb is essentially useless in low-intensity guerilla wars except as a "strategic weapon" to be used against the people in general. In the context of "asymmetrical warfare" -- a think-tank catchphrase for struggles between Western superpowers and Third World nations or irregulars -- the E-bomb is discussed primarily as a threat to the West. The technology required to build a simple E-bomb is apparently so straightforward that US counter-terrorism experts are alarmed: "Knock out electric power, computers and telecommunication and you've destroyed the foundation of modern society. In the age of Third World-sponsored terrorism, the E-bomb is the great equalizer."46 Meanwhile, guerilla forces can defend against E-bombs with relative ease: potential targets can be "hardened" by means of low-tech metal enclosures known as Faraday cages. The E-bomb, then, is one high-tech weapon that is potentially more advantageous to the weak than the strong.

By contrast, only wealthy nations can afford to invest in laser weapons.48 The US is actively researching a variety of space-based high-energy laser systems, mostly in the context of missile defense, but true space-to-ground laser cannons are said to be decades away. Battlefield laser guns, designed to blind enemy soldiers, have been developed by several countries including the US, but no country has yet dared to use them, presumably because they are explicitly banned under international law. However, a new class of "directed energy" beam weapons may soon be deployed in Iraq. This purportedly humane weapon fires a beam of electromagnetic energy that "flash-heats human targets from a distance [and creates] an unbearably painful burning sensation by instantaneously heating moisture under the skin." The beam may also cause blindness and birth defects. Designed to be mounted on military trucks, directed energy weapons are intended, not for combat as such, but for crowd control -- specifically the "Black Hawk Down scenario" in which GIs do battle against angry civilians. One such weapon, Raytheon's Active Denial System, is reportedly ready for use in Iraq, but Defense Department officials have expressed concern over "public perception" (read: news footage of children and pregnant women shrieking in agony) and "legal issues" (read: illegality).

Rumors that the US used horrific "secret weapons" to inflict atrocities in Afghanistan and Iraq still surface from time to time. In the aftermath of Fallujah, for example, numerous witnesses reported that the US had used a mysterious anti-personnel weapon that "melted" the flesh of its victims while leaving their bones, and sometimes clothing, intact. The reports were accurate, but the weapon was neither new nor secret. As an Italian television documentary later revealed and State Department officials eventually admitted, the US had deliberately used white phosphorus -- a spontaneously flammable chemical intended for battlefield illumination -- to burn fighters and trapped civilians alive. Overall, no convincing evidence has emerged of high-tech "secret weapons"; rather, the record suggests that the US remains quite capable of inflicting atrocities with its vast, well-publicized store of traditional weaponry.

-- Conclusion

The current US dilemma is in the Middle East is encapsulated in its struggle to cope with IEDs (Improvised Explosive Devices), homemade bombs typically concealed under roads used by US supply convoys. In Iraq, IED attacks began in July 2003 and have increased steadily thereafter in both numbers and proficiency. The US logged 10,953 separate IED attacks in 2005, accounting for 674 deaths (or 61.6% of all combat deaths) and 4,256 wounded (or 71.6% of all combat wounds). The IEDs effectiveness as a guerrilla weapon cannot be measured in casualties alone; these cheap, easily constructed booby traps56 also disrupt logistical support, tie down manpower, and undermine troop morale. Recognizing the grave threat posed by IEDs, the US launched a series of high-tech counter-measures, each of which was inventively nullified by a continuously evolving resistance:

The first IEDs were triggered by wires and batteries; insurgents waited on the roadside and detonated the primitive devices when Americans drove past. After a while, U.S. troops got good at spotting and killing the triggermen when bombs went off. That led the insurgents to replace their wires with radio signals. The Pentagon, at frantic speed and high cost, equipped its forces with jammers to block those signals, accomplishing the task [in Spring 2005]. The insurgents adapted swiftly by sending a continuous radio signal to the IED; when the signal stops or is jammed, the bomb explodes. The solution? Track the signal and make sure it continues. Problem: the signal is encrypted. Now the Americans are grappling with the task of cracking the encryption on the fly and mimicking it -- so far, without success.57

The story is a vivid illustration of the swiftness and flexibility with which resistance forces have adapted to high-tech warfare. Applying human intellect to cheap, widely available technology, resistance fighters have found ways of defeating some of the most sophisticated devices in the American arsenal. Meanwhile US analysts, traditionally prone to underestimating Third World adversaries, have been forced to acknowledge the guerrilla's superior ability to learn, communicate, and adapt; the Army's new counter-insurgency manual teaches that "[a] skillful counter-insurgent must be able to adapt at least as fast as the opponent."

What the high-tech military cannot hope to emulate, however, is the guerrilla's most powerful resource: the assistance and protection of the people. The tactical initiatives that have stymied the world's most powerful military machine are in every case underpinned by popular support and cooperation. Even in the absence of a coherent political program, the people of the Middle East have never doubted the need to resist foreign occupation, and have remained steadfast despite the immense human sacrifices exacted by the American style of warfare. Above all, they have refused to be intimidated either by high-tech paraphernalia or by the staggering lethality of US munitions. Their courage and persistence have entirely affirmed a military truth well enunciated by retired Major-Gen. Robert Scales Jr.: "If the enemy can see you, and range you with his weapons, he doesn't need a UAV to locate you or a precision weapon to kill you. All he needs is a 13-cent bullet."59