Brazil: To whom belongs the future?

Per some decades, still we will have, certainly, national States, some with limited sovereignty; predominance of actions directed for the market; the international capital maximizing its profits in diverse regions of the globe; declining taxes on degradation of the environment, we wait; beyond big part of the society without liberty of speech and submitted to a media impregnated of disinformation and controlled by powerful actors, also of beyond borders. For richness and contrasting with this shady picture, the solidarity of some mitigates many of the social injustices. The dream glimpsed by John Lennon in the song “Imagine”, that means technological developments without proprietors, especially to eliminate illnesses, natural resources consumed with parsimony, agricultural excesses donated to fight hunger, the preserved environment and human beings with liberty of speech and chances in the communitarian life, must be pursued, but, very probably, it will not happen inside of this horizon.

Brazilians must surpass, with victories, this period and, for such, as a first step, to choose which the great modifications to be implemented, having in mind a scene of uncertainties, with the accented demographic growth in underdeveloped countries, increasing the ditch between rich and poor; the increment of located conflicts for ethnic, religious and economic reasons; the increase of environment degradation, due to lack of conscience of some great polluting agents, States and companies; the scarcity of the natural resources, mainly, the oil; the incidence of epidemics located in peripheral world, but taking threats of contamination to the developed countries; the increase of the transference of wealth between countries, from the most devoid for the powerful ones; the technological developments aiming at each time bigger accumulation of capital; the increment of the work in under-human conditions in the less developed countries; the generalized unemployment and the growing of the social unevenness in many countries.

Having conscience of the obstacles to face, becomes urgent to rescue the national strategical planning, that the neoliberal rubbish, still existing in diverse governmental bodies and minds of national intelligence, it pledges in undeserving, hindering its effective implementation. The concept of that the country can grow only with the decisions of the “free forces of the market”, rancid thought of the most distinguished economic liberalism, has led the country to situations of dangerous emergency in the sector of the electric energy, as the “crisis” of 2001, in the logistic infrastructure, the option for solutions of foreign orientation, etc.

In socially mature countries , consolidated and really sovereign, the prospections of the future are made by groups of university thinkers, of governmental and enterprise institutions, as well as groups associated to national NGOS.

Appear from these works the master lines of a strategical planning, to be consolidated and periodically executed, through the plans of governments that alternate in the power.

A remarkable example of the importance of long stated period plannings with strategical vision, in our country, is the question of the oil, now salient for the certainty of very near scarcity to this product, true propeller of human kind.

If until very recently, its limitless abundance was proclaimed and defended for the “market” and its well remunerated heralds, as well as the countries of the OPEP, interested in the maintenance of high quotas of exportation, today, there is almost a consensus on the imminent crisis, from the IMF to the Financial Times, passing for Alan Greenspan and famous banks of investments.

Paradoxicalally and opposing this thesis, only Brazilian government keeps the rounds of licitations for delivery of the national oil to world-wide petroliferous companies, in detriment of the national interests, placing to lose all a technological and industrial effort, fruit of fights and mobilization gotten passionate of all the society.

Ther is no agreement about the year when the world-wide production of oil will pass for its maximum point, therefore some find that we've already reachen it, while others esteem that the alarming peak will happen up to 2015, year from which the price of the barrel will have to go up and up. How will world-wide economy get when the price of oil grows much above the increase of other materials and finished products, it will be a task for efficient and enabled planners.
Amongst the previsible consequences, a world-wide contraction can be glimpsed, with the increase of the unemployment; it will exist a natural substitution and conservation of part of the oil derivatives; the products and services, whose costs are under strong participation of these derivatives, will have its prices increased above of the average and could be substituted. In other words, new prices will occur in the world-wide economie, also with changes of expenses and customs of the consumers. However, in developing countries, that do not have its supplying guaranteed and with lesser condition to pay the increased price, the population will suffer more with the inevitable scarcity.

If Brazil grows 6% the year, in the next ten years, as proclaimed and anxiously waited, will Petrobra's oil be enough for domestic supplying in this decade? By which prices will our company place the derivatives in the domestic market? We must consider that we cannot count on the oil already "licited" to the foreign companies, therefore they can export it in this exactly period, commemorated and so divulged as national self-sufficiency. An exempt and realistic analysis of these premises, takes us to conclude that the future "crisis” of fuels can be determined, now, due to lack of planning and patriotic vision of the real interests of the society.

If, due to lack of ability or for pressures of the agents of the market, a macro planning of sovereign Nation was not offered to our country, we consider, at least, a prophylactic measure, where the rounds of licitations carried through for the ANP are paralyzed, not to create greater neoliberal “passive”, that compromises the future, the security and the tranquillity of Brazilian society.

As all Brazilians, we want our country as a great, fair and sovereign Nation. Thus, brazilian society musto demand guarantees for its future, with a country guided for integrated plans of government, in which the viable scenes of the national and international conjuncture are seriously considered.

Let us not to allow alignments with those that locate themselves as insensitive and accomodated, therefore is important to have in mind that the future is of our responsibility and that our errors and rightnesss, of us, the citizens of the moment, they will to re-echo in our young descendants, children and grandsons, to whom we do really desire a happy future.

Sergio Ferolla, brazilian air force Brigadier General, is a member of National Engineering Academy. Paulo Metri is a council member of the Engineering Club. They are authors of “Not all oil is ours”, Publishing company Paz e Terra.